Foreign Policy Decision Making

I.  What is Foreign Policy?

A.  Definition

II.  Decision-Making Models

A.  Rational Model

1.  Assumes Process is rational and predictable

2.  Uncertainty as a factor

B.  Organizational Process Model

1.  standard operating procedures

C.  Government Bargaining (Bureaucratic Politics) Model

III. Role of the Individual

A.  Decision-makers

1.  idiosyncrasies

2.  Systematic divergences from the model

a.  misperceptions/selective perceptions

b.  affective bias

c.  cognitive biases

1.  wishful thinking

2.  worst-case scenarios

3.  historical analogies

IV.  Group Dynamics

A.  Positive and Negative Affects

B.  Psychological Dynamics

1.  Groupthink

C.  Group Structure Problems

V.   Crises in foreign Policy Situations

A.  Outcomes are critical

B.  Stress

VI.  Substate Actors

A.  Bureaucracies

1.  Diplomats

2.  Interagency Tensions

B.  Interest Groups

C.  Military Industrial Complex

1.  Eisenhower's Warning

2.  Definitions

3.  How It Works

a.  V-22 Osprey

4.  Sum-up

D.  Public Opinion

1.  Democracies vs. Authoritarian Governments

2.  Propaganda

a.  "Wag the Dog"